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Sustainable financing depends on credible targets

Clear, evidence-based targets bridge information gaps between issuers and investors by establishing common benchmarks. Assessing feasibility alongside ambitiousness prevents both trivial goals and unrealistic commitments, thereby enhancing confidence and directing capital toward genuine impact.

Users can explore any of the 171 indicators and 213 economies from the Sovereign ESG Data Portal. By understanding both feasibility and ambitiousness, users also avoid low hanging fruits, which are low ambition and high feasiblity targets that might have happened in any case, and long shots, which are high ambition and low feasibility targets, which look great on paper but are unlikely to ever become reality.

What is Feasibility?

Feasibility examines how likely it is that a country can meet its goal by looking at historical trajectories of similar countries. High feasibility suggests many countries have achieved comparable results, while low feasibility indicates limited precedent.

What is Ambitiousness?

Ambitiousness, on the other hand, gauges how far a target goes beyond what would occur without policy changes (business-as-usual). Targets close to BAU are less ambitious, while those requiring significant effort to deviate from current trends are more ambitious.

The FAB Matrix

Putting both ideas together produces the FAB Matrix illustrated below. It maps out every combination of feasibility and ambition, ensuring that each target finds its place on the Matrix. With the full range visible, it's easy to identify which objectives both issuers and investors should steer clear of.

Low hanging fruits. Targets that are easy to achieve but lack ambition risk accusations of greenwashing. If hardly any effort is required to meet the goal, it likely would have been attained regardless. Why would investors reward issuers for such an outcome? And what incentive remains for issuers to set more challenging objectives in the future?

Long shots. Simply setting very high targets doesn't eliminate greenwashing concerns. When goals are so lofty that they cannot realistically be met, any claimed additionality exists only on paper. Such hollow promises carry reputational risks for both the issuer and the broader asset class.